Free DCF Calculator Online — Full 3-Scenario Model

Published: 2026-03-01  ·  Updated: 2026-04-05  ·  By Intrinsik  ·  10 min read

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model is the most rigorous method for estimating what a stock is worth. It forces you to make explicit assumptions about growth, risk, and terminal value — instead of simply anchoring on price or relative multiples. The problem has always been that building one from scratch requires hours of spreadsheet work and access to reliable financial data.

This article explains what a DCF calculator does, what inputs it needs, and why 3 scenarios are better than one point estimate. It also walks through how Intrinsik automates the entire process — for free — using data pulled directly from SEC filings.

What is a DCF calculator?

A DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) calculator takes a company's projected future free cash flows, discounts them back to today's value using a risk-adjusted rate, and outputs an estimated intrinsic value per share. The core idea is simple: a dollar received in the future is worth less than a dollar today, because you could invest that dollar and earn a return in the meantime.

The discount rate — typically WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) — reflects the opportunity cost of capital and the risk specific to that company. A higher discount rate produces a lower present value; a lower rate produces a higher one. This is why WACC is the single most important assumption in any DCF.

The 5 inputs every DCF model needs

Regardless of the tool you use, every DCF requires five core inputs:

1. Base free cash flow (FCF) — Trailing twelve months operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Found in the cash flow statement of the most recent 10-K or 10-Q filing.
2. FCF growth rate — How fast you expect FCF to grow each year over the projection period. This is where the three scenarios diverge.
3. WACC (discount rate) — The blended cost of equity and debt, weighted by capital structure. Higher-risk companies have higher WACCs and therefore lower present values for the same cash flows.
4. Terminal growth rate — The perpetual growth rate assumed after year 5, used in the Gordon Growth terminal value formula. Typically 2–3%, anchored to long-run nominal GDP growth.
5. Shares outstanding — Used to convert enterprise value to equity value per share. Should use diluted shares, including options and restricted stock units.

Why three scenarios are better than one

A single-scenario DCF is dangerous because it implies false precision. The output — say, $187 per share — looks authoritative, but it is extremely sensitive to the assumptions underneath it. A 1 percentage point change in WACC can move fair value by 15–25% for a typical growth company. A 2-point change in the terminal growth rate can move it by even more.

A 3-scenario model (bear, base, bull) solves this by forcing you to be explicit about the range of plausible outcomes:

The three outputs — bear, base, and bull fair values — are then combined into a composite estimate, weighted by your conviction in each scenario. This "football field" range is how sell-side analysts and private equity firms present valuations professionally.

How to build a DCF model — step by step

Here is the complete process for building a DCF valuation from scratch:

1. Pull FCF from the cash flow statement. Go to SEC EDGAR (edgar.sec.gov), find the company's most recent 10-K or 10-Q, and locate net cash from operating activities and capital expenditures. FCF = Operating Cash Flow − CapEx.
2. Normalize FCF for unusual capex cycles. If the company is in a heavy investment phase (building a new factory, datacenter expansion), compare trailing capex to the 3-year average. Using a one-year spike will understate FCF and undervalue the stock.
3. Calculate WACC. Use CAPM for the cost of equity: Ke = Rf + β × ERP. Where Rf is the current 10-year Treasury yield, β is the company's beta versus the S&P 500, and ERP is the equity risk premium (typically 5–5.5%). Weight with after-tax cost of debt: Kd × (1 − Tax Rate).
4. Project FCF for 5 years across 3 scenarios. Apply your bear, base, and bull growth rates year-by-year. Year 1 growth ≠ Year 5 growth — growth typically decelerates as companies mature.
5. Calculate terminal value using the Gordon Growth Model. TV = FCF₅ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g). This single number typically represents 60–80% of total DCF value — handle it carefully.
6. Discount everything back to present value. PV = Cash Flow / (1 + WACC)ᵗ for each year, plus PV of terminal value.
7. Add cash, subtract debt, divide by diluted shares. Enterprise Value + Cash − Total Debt = Equity Value. Equity Value / Diluted Shares Outstanding = Fair Value per Share.

How Intrinsik automates this from SEC filings

Intrinsik automates every step above for any of 9,900+ US-listed stocks in under 60 seconds. Here is what happens under the hood when you type a ticker:

1. Data extraction: Intrinsik reads the company's most recent 10-K and 10-Q directly from SEC EDGAR — revenue, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, net debt, shares outstanding, and stock-based compensation.
2. FCF normalization: The engine compares trailing capex to the 3-year average and adjusts if the company is in an investment cycle, preventing distorted valuations.
3. WACC from CAPM: The discount rate is calculated from the live risk-free rate (10-year Treasury), the company's beta, and the equity risk premium — plus the after-tax cost of debt from actual interest expense and leverage.
4. 3-scenario model: Three parallel 5-year DCF models are built with independent growth assumptions for each scenario, then discounted back using the Gordon Growth terminal value.
5. Composite fair value: The DCF is cross-checked against EV/EBITDA multiples and P/E reversion. All three methods are weighted into a football field chart showing the full valuation range.

Every assumption is editable. You can change WACC, terminal growth rate, FCF growth trajectory, and scenario weights — and the model updates instantly.

What makes a good DCF calculator?

Not all DCF calculators are equal. The difference between a useful one and a misleading one comes down to three things:

• Data source quality. Scraped or estimated data introduces errors that compound through the model. The most reliable source is SEC filings — 10-K and 10-Q — because they are audited and standardized.
• WACC methodology. Hardcoding a fixed discount rate (e.g., "use 10% for all stocks") is a common shortcut that produces systematically wrong results. WACC should be derived from CAPM using the company's actual beta and the current risk-free rate.
• Transparency of assumptions. A black-box output is not useful. The best DCF tools show you every assumption — and let you change them — so you can stress-test the valuation yourself.

Frequently asked questions

What is a DCF calculator?
A DCF calculator projects a company's future free cash flows and discounts them to present value using a risk-adjusted rate (WACC). The output is an estimated intrinsic value per share. It automates what would otherwise require a multi-tab financial model built in Excel.

What inputs does a DCF model need?
Five core inputs: (1) base free cash flow from the most recent SEC filing; (2) FCF growth rate per scenario; (3) WACC derived from CAPM; (4) terminal growth rate for the Gordon Growth formula; (5) diluted shares outstanding to convert to per-share equity value.

Why use three scenarios instead of one in a DCF?
A single-scenario DCF implies false precision. Fair value is highly sensitive to growth rate and WACC assumptions. A 3-scenario model forces explicit bear, base, and bull assumptions, producing a range rather than a point estimate — which is how professional analysts present valuations.

Is Intrinsik's DCF calculator really free?
Yes. Intrinsik offers 2 free analyses per month with no credit card required. The free tier includes the full 3-scenario DCF, WACC from CAPM, football field chart, and composite fair value. Pro ($25/month) unlocks 60 analyses/month, full financial statements, and AI synthesis.

How accurate is an online DCF calculator?
Accuracy depends on input quality. Intrinsik uses audited SEC filing data, normalizes FCF for investment cycles, and calculates WACC from CAPM — making the starting point as reliable as possible. Even so, a DCF is a structured estimate. It should inform your investment thesis, not replace independent judgment.

What is the Gordon Growth Model in a DCF?
The Gordon Growth Model calculates terminal value: TV = FCF × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), where g is the long-run growth rate (2–3%). Terminal value typically represents 60–80% of total DCF value — making the terminal growth rate assumption one of the most consequential in the model.